浙江省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系及驱动因素研究

运用IPCC参考方法、Tapio脱钩模型、协整分析和Granger因果检验,研究了浙江碳排放特征及其驱动因素.结果表明:碳排放量呈增长趋势,碳排放强度呈下降趋势,多数年份碳排放与经济增长之间呈"弱脱钩"状态;经济增长、外贸和人口增长对碳排放正向驱动,能源效率和城市化对碳排放负向驱动;经济增长、外贸、城市化和人口增长是引起碳排放增长的单向Granger原因,能源效率与碳排放互为Granger原因.     

基于改进灰靶模型的污染状况评价方法及应用研究

鉴于环境数据的小样本和少信息特点,将改进的灰靶模型和熵权法相结合,应用于污染状况评价.选用废水、化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和烟尘作为评价因子,利用地区面积和地区降水量对排放指标进行折算得到污染指数,利用污染指数对山东省17个地市2001年至2013年的污染状况进行综合评价,并对经济和环境的关系进行了分析,评价结果表明:除东营、聊城、滨州外,大部分地区十三年中在省内相对污染状况没有较大变化;仅青岛、威海、烟台等少数地区的经济和环境关系比较和谐,其他大部分地区经济和环境关系不和谐.     

公路线源大气环境影响预测方法对比分析研究

文章通过从模式原理、范围和特点等方面对AERMOD大气预测模式与EIAA预测模式进行对比分析,以甘肃省天水段G310国道升级改造项目为例,分别采用AERMOD和EIAA两种模式对交通线源排放的特征污染因子CO在各环境空气敏感点的小时最大浓度进行预测,并对预测值与实测值进行对比分析,探讨两种模式在公路线源大气环境影响预测中的适用性及差异性。以期为今后开展道路交通类建设项目大气环境影响预测评价中模式的选取提供参考和借鉴。     

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of perfluoroalkyl substances in the human body

Currently, there are limited data on the levels of perfluoroalkyl substances other than perfluorooctane sulfonic acid and perfluorooctanoic acid in the human body. Most of this information has been extracted from biological monitoring of plasma while the occurrence of perfluoroalkyl substances in other human tissues is rarely studied. The objective of the present study was to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to assess the concentration of perfluoroalkyl substances in human tissues, based on an existing model previously validated for perfluorooctane sulfonic acid and perfluorooctanoic acid. Experimental data on concentrations of perfluoroalkyl substances in human tissues from individuals in Tarragona County (Catalonia, Spain) were used to estimate the values of some distribution and elimination parameters needed for the simulation. No significant correlations were found between these parameters and the chain lengths. The model was finally validated for five perfluoroalkyl substances.     

Model of chloride ingress into concrete in cold regions

Chloride ingress and freeze-thaw cycles are the most important mechanisms for deterioration of concrete in cold areas. In this study, chloride ingress into concrete that has been exposed to freeze-thaw cycles was investigated. Data demonstrated that freeze-thaw cycles allow for a larger effective diffusion coefficient. Based on our findings, the concept of a developing coefficient was defined to obtain the evolution equation of the effective diffusion coefficient. Together with considering the effect of aging of concrete on the effective diffusion coefficient, the time-dependent diffusion coefficient was also obtained. Based on Fick's second law and time-dependent diffusion coefficient, chloride ingress model of concrete in cold regions was derived. Finally, the model was tested by comparing predicted results, lab results, and in situ inspection data.     

预测沉积物-水微宇宙系统中化学品浓度变化的多介质模型

沉积物-水微宇宙系统是经济合作发展组织(Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development,OECD)颁布的化学品测试准则中推荐的试验系统之一,可用来测试化学品对底栖生物的慢性毒性。为了在试验前对化学品的浓度变化进行预测,进而确定试验方法,以摇蚊慢性毒性试验系统为例,采用环境多介质模型的建模方法,构建了一种可通过化学品理化性质和试验系统参数,对化学品在沉积物-水试验系统中浓度变化进行预测的模型。结合试验数据和文献资料,给出了模型中试验系统参数的推荐取值,并使用Matlab软件中的Simulink工具对模型进行编程和求解。以此模型为基础,给出了模型在3个方面的应用,即预测蓄积时间、预测平衡时间以及拟合试验数据。对80种已有或假想化学品的蓄积时间和平衡时间进行了计算,得出的范围分别为1~204 d和1~73 d。此外,适当修改模型结构和模型参数,也可将其应用于其他暴露场景中。但使用模型对化学品浓度进行预测时发现,模型仅对沉积物中化学品浓度的预测结果较为准确,而对水中化学品浓度的预测结果与实测值相差1~2个数量级。模型对浓度的预测精度未来仍需进一步提高。上述研究结果完善了沉积物-水微宇宙系统试验方法。     

A fungal perspective on conservation biology

Hitherto fungi have rarely been considered in conservation biology, but this is changing as the field moves from addressing single species issues to an integrative ecosystem‐based approach. The current emphasis on biodiversity as a provider of ecosystem services throws the spotlight on the vast diversity of fungi, their crucial roles in terrestrial ecosystems, and the benefits of considering fungi in concert with animals and plants. We reviewed the role of fungi in ecosystems and composed an overview of the current state of conservation of fungi. There are 5 areas in which fungi can be readily integrated into conservation: as providers of habitats and processes important for other organisms; as indicators of desired or undesired trends in ecosystem functioning; as indicators of habitats of conservation value; as providers of powerful links between human societies and the natural world because of their value as food, medicine, and biotechnological tools; and as sources of novel tools and approaches for conservation of megadiverse organism groups. We hope conservation professionals will value the potential of fungi, engage mycologists in their work, and appreciate the crucial role of fungi in nature. Una Perspectiva Micótica de la Biología de la Conservación     

NGO collaboration in community post‐disaster reconstruction: field research following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

The number of communities affected by disasters has been rising. As a result, non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) that attend community post‐disaster reconstruction are often unable to deliver all requirements and have to develop cooperative approaches. However, this collaboration can cause problems because of the complex environments, the fight for limited resources and uncoordinated management, all of which result in poor service delivery to the communities, adding to their woes. From extensive field research and case studies conducted in the post‐Wenchuan earthquake‐stricken communities, this paper introduces an integrated collaboration framework for community post‐disaster reconstruction with the focus on three types of NGOs: international, government organised and civil. The proposed collaboration framework examines the three interrelated components of organisational structure, operational processes and reconstruction goals/implementation areas. Of great significance in better promoting collaborative participation between NGOs are the crucial concepts of participatory reconstruction, double‐layer collaborative networks, and circular review and revision.     

SMART-SREC: A stochastic model of the New Jersey solar renewable energy certificate market

Markets for solar renewable energy certificates (SRECs) are gaining in prominence in many states, stimulating growth of the US solar industry. However, SREC market prices have been extremely volatile, causing high risk to participants and potentially less investment in solar power generation. Such concerns necessitate the development of realistic, flexible and tractable models of SREC prices that capture the behavior of participants given the rules that govern the market. We propose an original stochastic model called SMART-SREC to fill this role, building on established ideas from the carbon pricing literature, and including a feedback mechanism for generation response to prices. We calibrate the model to the New Jersey market and backtest it, analyzing parameter sensitivity and demonstrating its ability to reproduce historical dynamics. Finally, we run simulations to investigate the role and impact of regulatory parameters, thus providing insight into the crucial role played by market design.     

Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model

This paper studies the dynamic behavior of an economy under different environmental policy regimes in a New Keynesian model with nominal and real uncertainty. We find the following results: (i) an emissions cap policy is likely to dampen macroeconomic fluctuations; (ii) staggered price adjustment alters significantly the performance of the environmental policy regime put in place; (iii) the optimal environmental policy response to shocks is strongly influenced by the degree to which prices adjust and by the monetary policy reaction.